UK Construction Industry Faces Critical 250,000 Worker Shortage by 2028
The UK construction sector faces a massive labour gap of 251,500 workers by 2028, according to CITB, representing a structural crisis affecting housing, infrastructure, and retrofit projects.
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UK Construction Industry Faces Critical 250,000 Worker Shortage by 2028
The UK's construction sector is staring down a massive labour gap. According to the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB), over 251,500 additional workers will be required by 2028 just to keep pace with demand. That's not a small shortfall—it amounts to a structural crisis with ripple effects across housing, infrastructure, retrofit, and private development.
This article explores the origin of the shortfall, its distribution across trades and regions, the critical drivers behind it, and how industry and government must respond—with concrete metrics, charts, and actionable proposals.
The Numbers: Forecasts & Gaps
Magnitude and Growth Rate
The CITB's Construction Skills Network (CSN) 2024-28 report projects UK construction employment must grow to 2.75 million by 2028 to meet demand, up from current levels. That implies +251,500 workers will need to be added across the five-year period (approx. +2.4% growth per year).
To break it down: around 50,000 net new additions per year (after accounting for retirements, exits, etc.)
Baseline & Attrition
The sector already has persistent vacancy pressure. In 2023, an average of 38,000 construction vacancies were advertised per month. While firms recruit ~200,000 people annually, attrition exceeds that: in some estimates, 210,000 left (retired or otherwise) in one recent year.
The sector also has a demographic challenge: large numbers of skilled tradespeople are nearing retirement, particularly in bricklaying, plumbing, carpentry, and electrical roles.
Sector & Regional Distribution
The demand is not uniform:
- Private housing, infrastructure, and repair & maintenance are the major growth areas.
- Regions with ambitious housing, transport or net zero programmes (e.g. South East, the Midlands, Wales, the North) will feel pressure more sharply.
- Smaller firms and rural areas suffer more from recruitment lag, especially in specialist roles like scaffolders, pipefitters, groundworkers.
Chart: Workforce Shortfall Projection
UK Construction Workforce Demand Projection (2023 → 2028)
| Year | Forecast Workforce Level | Gap vs 2023 Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ~2,50x,xxx | 0 |
| 2024 | +2.4 % | +≈ 50,000 |
| 2025 | +2.4 % | +≈ 103,000 |
| 2026 | +2.4 % | +≈ 159,000 |
| 2027 | +2.4 % | +≈ 210,000 |
| 2028 | +2.4 % | +≈ 251,500 |
(Based on CITB average annual growth = 2.4 %)
This rising curve isn't smooth: attrition, macro shocks, recruitment bottlenecks, and regional mismatch will distort the path.
Why Is This Gap Emerging?
1. Aging & Retiring Workforce
Many current workers are close to retirement age. The rate of exit from experienced roles is rising, particularly in lower-skilled trades that historically had less succession planning.
2. Weak Apprenticeship Pipeline
While apprenticeships are a key supply route, completion rates, industry engagement, and new entrant numbers have not scaled enough to offset losses.
3. Brexit + Migration Constraints
Post-Brexit, access to EU labour became more restricted. That removes a previous buffer that many firms relied on to plug short-term gaps.
4. Perceived Decline in Trade Careers
Younger generations increasingly favour white-collar, tech, or service careers over traditional trades. The sector must fight for appeal and image.
5. Digital / Green Skill Demands
Modern construction calls for more than pure manual skills. Workers now must operate with digital tools, MMC, sustainability, and regulatory complexity. That raises the bar for training and slows throughput.
6. Fragmentation & Small Firm Limitations
A significant portion of construction firms are SMEs or sole traders, with limited HR capacity to sponsor apprentices, invest in training, or manage recruitment at scale.
7. Macroeconomic & Investment Uncertainty
Volatile project pipelines, inflation, interest rates, and funding cuts deter firms from committing to hiring or training new staff.
Impact Zones: Where Strain Will Be Felt
Housing Delivery
With targets to build 1.5 million homes by 2029, housing development faces a bottleneck: if labour cannot keep up, delivery delays, cost inflation, and quality compromises become inevitable.
Infrastructure & Transport Programs
Large-scale infrastructure depends on civils, groundworks, utilities and specialist trades. Labour shortages will push projects off schedule, increase margins, and raise risk for contractors.
Retrofit & Net Zero Goals
Meeting climate targets means retrofitting large parts of existing housing stock. That requires many trades (insulation, ventilation, MEP). If basic trade gaps exist, scaling retrofit becomes harder.
Productivity & Costs
With fewer skilled hands, the industry will suffer more productivity drag, wage inflation, bidding risk, and risk premiums. Some projects may become unviable.
Regional Inequality
Regions with weaker labour markets or fewer training institutions may struggle more to fill gaps, deepening inequalities in development and growth.
Strategies to Bridge the Gap: What Must Happen
Expand Apprenticeship & Training Capacity
- Increase intake in trade apprenticeships; improve support for SMEs.
- Use shared apprenticeship models (clusters of firms) to reduce overheads.
- Reform levy rules to unlock underspend, extend expiry, and allow training of key tools and travel costs.
Upskilling & Reskilling
- Launch fast-track bootcamps for mid-skill roles (scaffolders, plant operators, supervisors).
- Provide bridging programmes for career changers or underrepresented groups.
- Embed digital, MMC, and sustainability modules into all upskilling.
Mobilise Retirees & Returners
- Create return-to-work programmes for retired tradespeople or sidelined workers.
- Use mentorship and phased roles to harness knowledge while training new workers.
Strategic Migration & Visa Flexibility
- Ensure immigration policy supports critical trades shortage, with visa categories aligned to regional pay and market demand.
- Use temporary visas for specialist roles while domestic capacity scales.
Industry–Education Partnership Networks
- Strengthen LSIP (Local Skills Improvement Plans) alignment between employers and FE colleges.
- Create regional training centres of excellence for high-demand trades.
- Share apprenticeship and training resources, labs, simulators across firms.
Retention & Career Paths
- Incentivise companies to retain apprentices and invest in progression to supervisory or specialist roles.
- Encourage multi-trade career ladder design.
- Foster a culture of lifelong learning, internal mobility, and professionalisation.
Demand Management & Productivity Gains
- Use productivity improvements, prefab / MMC, lean delivery to reduce labour intensity per project.
- Prioritise projects with higher labour efficiency.
- Embed site planning, logistics and automation to free up skilled labour.
Example Metrics to Track Progress
| Metric | Target / Benchmark | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Annual new hire net growth | ≥ 50,000 skilled entrants | Bridge gap pace |
| Apprenticeship starts in construction | +20–30% per year | Supply pipeline |
| Completion & retention rate | ≥ 80% over 2 yrs | Quality & stability |
| Vacancy backfill rate | ≥ 90% | Responsiveness |
| Regional coverage of skills centres | All major regions | Equity |
| Migration permits for trades | Enough to cover residual gap | Policy buffer |
| Productivity / output per worker | +3–5% annually | Efficiency relief |
Urgency & Risk: Why Delay Is Dangerous
If the gap grows unchecked, project delays will cascade, pushing up costs, reducing investor confidence, and delaying national goals (housing, transport, energy).
- Contractors may become more selective in bids, rejecting smaller or riskier projects.
- Quality risks: if underqualified labour is used in hurry, defects or failures may increase.
- Labour inflation: scarcity forces wage increases, eroding margins.
- Regional imbalance: "skills deserts" may worsen in certain parts of the UK, stalling local growth.
A Call to Action: What Stakeholders Must Do
Government
- Back the newly pledged £600 million training package and ensure it's targeted at critical trades.
- Reform the apprenticeship levy to be more flexible and aligned to employer needs.
- Adjust immigration policy to support trade skill shortages in the short term.
- Encourage regional training investment (centres, mobility grants).
Industry Bodies / CITB
- Use the new Construction Workforce Outlook 2025–29 to prioritise trade gaps.
- Track progress with transparent dashboards across trade categories.
- Provide employer support for small firms in training administration and matching.
Employers / Contractors
- Integrate workforce planning into bidding, budgeting, and project strategy.
- Commit to hiring and mentoring apprentices and trainees.
- Share training infrastructure with peer firms to reduce duplication.
- Invest in productivity tools (prefab, logistics, digital) to reduce reliance on brute labour.
Education & Providers
- Scale capacity in FE colleges: labs, trainers, curricula aligned to demand.
- Link closely with employers and LSIPs to keep courses relevant.
- Offer modular, flexible training to accommodate working learners.
Individuals & Career Changers
- Promote trade careers early in schools; highlight modern trade roles including digital, green, and MMC specialities.
- Offer accessible bridging programmes for people from non-construction backgrounds to join trades.
The Bottom Line
The 250,000 worker shortfall by 2028 is not a forecast—it's a warning. Without decisive, coordinated action across government, industry, education and individuals, the UK's ability to deliver housing, infrastructure and retrofit programmes will be undermined.
But it's still salvageable. With the right investments in apprenticeships, upskilling, retention, productivity, and policy support, the industry can turn this gap into a catalyst for modernization. The next five years will determine whether the UK construction labour market is broken—or reinvented.
